First month into the new season

Betting the new season is always difficult and I ended with a negative result. I lost 519€ but got 80€ back from Betfair in loyalty bonus. Its a loss that hurts my confidence but it doesn’t make me hesitate. When I woke up sunday morning 28. august I was down 780€ for the month but managed to make back 260€ in one day so I’m able to turn it around during the season – hopefully. :-)

It was primarily my prematch trading which was horrendous. I have never experienced so bad and mistimed trading from myself. When I entered markets they tend to crash and move against me straight away. I closed profitable trades all to soon and I kept losing trades open to long. Just poor trading! 2-3 trades had major losses when I check my spreadsheet and I will continue with few trades with small stakes to get back in the game. It will take ages to fight back the loss of 595 € from turning over 30,500 € but I have to take baby steps back.

My asian handicap betting did okay. 76 bets going 35 wins, 2 half wins compared to 28 losses and 9 half losses. 2 bets was refunded.

My profit of 56 € therefore came down to my staking was good. I turned over 4,450 € – that is a low activity, but the major leagues started mid or late august so I feel comfortable with the result. A lot of my bets was Champions league and Euroleague qualifers and that gave me a hard time. Championship was really nice to me just like Serie A!

The reason why this screen shot from my spreadsheet is at 86 € profit is because my hedgebets at Betfair gave a profit of 30€ which was a nice add on. I keep my hedge bets at a minimum because it ruins the profit but I enjoyed reducing my risk at certain points. As an example I had Bordeaux -0,25 @ home leading 1-0 in second half. Stats showed an aggressive away side and in the last 10 minutes of the game I placed a hedgebet at Betfair on 1-1 correct score with minimal stakes. Bordeaux won the game but my insurance bet was still worth it.

ahcap

My correct score strategy was tested with real money in august. The last 2 month of 2015/2016 season I traded in practice mode to adjust my strategy and get comfortable in different situations. How should I react in a low scoring /high scoring game, favorite or underdog taking the lead and how reacts the markets to a sending off. I only traded 6 matches with my own strategy and 1 game with inspiration from others. Its a very thin number of games to do any review on but the result ended with a 37 € loss from risking 1,100 €. My own strategy lost just 6 euros.

My last category of bets is my live-bets. Its a bit more impulsive and based on stats from ongoing game. 10 bets returning 10% or 33€ from risking 325€. These bets was all of them lay of current score – which means I was expecting more goals and my lay prices is typically between 1,70 – 4,00.

My betting activity is zero during international games. I don’t feel comfortable betting these games so I spend the time updating spreadsheets and my blog.

Thank you for reading.!

Jeppe