Betting the new season is always difficult and I ended with a negative result. I lost 519€ but got 80€ back from Betfair in loyalty bonus. Its a loss that hurts my confidence but it doesn’t make me hesitate. When I woke up sunday morning 28. august I was down 780€ for the month but managed to make back 260€ in one day so I’m able to turn it around during the season – hopefully.
It was primarily my prematch trading which was horrendous. I have never experienced so bad and mistimed trading from myself. When I entered markets they tend to crash and move against me straight away. I closed profitable trades all to soon and I kept losing trades open to long. Just poor trading! 2-3 trades had major losses when I check my spreadsheet and I will continue with few trades with small stakes to get back in the game. It will take ages to fight back the loss of 595 € from turning over 30,500 € but I have to take baby steps back.
My asian handicap betting did okay. 76 bets going 35 wins, 2 half wins compared to 28 losses and 9 half losses. 2 bets was refunded.
My profit of 56 € therefore came down to my staking was good. I turned over 4,450 € – that is a low activity, but the major leagues started mid or late august so I feel comfortable with the result. A lot of my bets was Champions league and Euroleague qualifers and that gave me a hard time. Championship was really nice to me just like Serie A!
The reason why this screen shot from my spreadsheet is at 86 € profit is because my hedgebets at Betfair gave a profit of 30€ which was a nice add on. I keep my hedge bets at a minimum because it ruins the profit but I enjoyed reducing my risk at certain points. As an example I had Bordeaux -0,25 @ home leading 1-0 in second half. Stats showed an aggressive away side and in the last 10 minutes of the game I placed a hedgebet at Betfair on 1-1 correct score with minimal stakes. Bordeaux won the game but my insurance bet was still worth it.
My correct score strategy was tested with real money in august. The last 2 month of 2015/2016 season I traded in practice mode to adjust my strategy and get comfortable in different situations. How should I react in a low scoring /high scoring game, favorite or underdog taking the lead and how reacts the markets to a sending off. I only traded 6 matches with my own strategy and 1 game with inspiration from others. Its a very thin number of games to do any review on but the result ended with a 37 € loss from risking 1,100 €. My own strategy lost just 6 euros.
My last category of bets is my live-bets. Its a bit more impulsive and based on stats from ongoing game. 10 bets returning 10% or 33€ from risking 325€. These bets was all of them lay of current score – which means I was expecting more goals and my lay prices is typically between 1,70 – 4,00.
My betting activity is zero during international games. I don’t feel comfortable betting these games so I spend the time updating spreadsheets and my blog.
Thank you for reading.!